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UFC analyst and betting expert KC gives us the lowdown on UFC Fight Night: Covington v Woodley and advises where to put your money.

Colby Covington vs Tyron Woodley
Same height, both in their natural weight class, both wrestling backgrounds, and both with a lot of pressure on themselves.
Colby for running his mouth, and now his recently broken jaw. Woodley for his legacy, reputation, pride, and for an entire country of BLM supporters I would think.
Could be a great contest if Woodley fights. We know Colby will.
Great output and an effective pressuring chain wrestler, but a very light hitting striker (his strikes per knockdown is absurdly high – but that stat can’t be too negative, as he pulls the trigger at least). Hasn’t had any great wins ever. I’d argue his best win was round 4 with a broken jaw, over Usman. Call that cardio, heart, toughness, or what, he showed even his most bitter rivals that he can back up some of his shtick.
Other than that one round…. he beat a thoroughly washed up Robbie Lawler, and two specialist Jiu-Jitsu vets in Maia and RDA (undersized RDA as well). So his resume doesn’t impress. He needs a few big wins.
And with Usman, Burns, Edwards, Masvidal, Neal, Khamzat, even Chiesa – I don’t see any of them going Colby’s way.
But the UFC is obviously feeding him a winnable fight here to get back on track against a rapidly fading ex-champ who hasn’t thrown a real punch in the last 10 rounds.
I think revisionist history should/will look more favourably on his two Wonderboy fights. Thompson is excellent, and Woodley beat him twice, regardless of how boring they were. Woodley also destroyed Darren Till (unfortunately another guy that doesn’t do anything offensively in the octagon). Then got handled by Usman (he just wrestled him in a snoozer) and another lame effort loss to the undersized Durinho.
Now, considering Colby will likely use the same blueprint (wrestling/cardio edge) to beat Woodley, I can see why the odds are in Covington’s favour.
I mean how many ex-champs have climbed back to glory?
I can’t recall many.
But -400?? (1/4 or 1.25). Give Covington credit for the hype, but don’t believe it.
My prediction: Colby tries to wrestle and stifle Woodley with output of course. And Woodley fights back. Call it rage, frustration, or skill, Tyron was a long time Champion for a reason. And his wrestling background could (it didn’t vs Usman) make this a boxing match. And Covington hasn’t beaten up anyone, he’s just outworked a few.
Easy money – Woodley decks him (power differential is large) and KO’s him early…. (And if Colby has success wrestling (possible), Woodley should hang them up forever. And that will be Colby’s last win for a while. Because Khamzat will be next, win or lose. And Covington is tough enough to take on the challenger, just not good enough to win it.)
Woodley By KO.

Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone vs Niko Price
You know where I stand. Cowboy got thoroughly destroyed (doctor stoppage) by El Cucuy at 155lbs. Then KO’d by Gaethje at 155 (a given). Then lost two more at 170 because neither Conor (people thought it was a fix, it was so one sided) nor Pettis wanted to cut weight either. That’s all in the last 15 months. 3 Awful losses, and one robbery decision loss to Showtime who also rarely gets a win.
So now he has to (or will, cause he knows no better) fight Niko Price??
A large 170lb killer ex linebacker (High school, but still!) from Cape Coral, Florida (no idea, but sounds intimidating). This athlete is blunt force vs Cowboy’s undersized (waning) skill.
Cowboy 10 years ago could have won this fight, maybe… but only at 155. But TODAY at Welterweight? I hope it’s an early submission, because this is a mismatch of epic proportions/dimensions (however you say that, it’s large).
Price will stop/finish him.

Khamzat Chimaev vs Gerald Meerschaert at 185lbs.
This is why the sport is fantastic and why it’s only in it’s infancy. How many nut bag Chimaev’s are out there? I mean out of nowhere, straight-to-the-top in multiple weight classes type superstar? I’m thinking/hoping more than we know. Khamzat will have very little trouble with the Meerkat, who at his best comes up with weird submission wins… but usually just lays an egg against weak competition.
Khamzat wins – but possibly by decision – the Meerkat could tangle him up and possibly we find out Chimaev can gas (he ends people so quickly, so I’m just being conservative). Walk in the park here.

Johnny Walker vs Ryan Spann
We all have bad betting memories with Mr. Walker’s last two beat downs. And Spann does have potential (8 fight win streak vs mostly nobody). But the only words that come to mind to describe these two are “exciting” and slow.”
I’ll take the 6 foot 6 highlight reel by KO. Wow, Spann is 6 foot 6 as well.
This is an absurd sport.
Walker by KO.

Mackenzie Dern 8-1 vs Randa Markos 10-9-1
I know Mackenzie’s name. I believe she is a good wrestler with a powerful caboose. Unsurprisingly, I have never heard of Markos. Definitely not the 10-9 and one variety. This has easy money written all over it. Don’t overthink it, the UFC needs more female names. Dern is one of them.
MackyD for the win.

Kevin Holland 18-5 vs Darren Stewart 12-5
For as many times these guys have fought on TV, nothing really stands out. Both good. “The Dentist” is a decent underdog here. I have no idea why. Possibly because of his disarming British accent when he speaks…somehow confuses people.
I’ll take the Dentist for the win.

PARLAY: Price/Khamzat/Walker/Dern pays 5:1. Load that up.

Written by KC

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