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MARSHY MADE GOOD RETURNS LAST WEEK – PICKS EPL ROUND 28

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Firstly, lets take a look at how Marshy did last week to keep him honest. A R100 bet on each would  have resulted in a net profit of R265 in total. (Wins R295+R170 = R465) – (Losses R100+R100 =R200).

Liverpool to win to nil over West Ham at Anfield at 1.91 is a give away.  — Ok we got this one wrong … didn’t see West Ham getting anything at Anfield
Chelsea to win to nil over an injury hit Spurs at 2.95 is also some decent odds. — We more than made up for the Liverpool miss with this decent payout
Man City over Leicester offering 1.70 is a solid bet. — Got this 
Sheff United at 1.91 at home over Brighton is even better.  — Lost this

This week we have a shortened round due to the Carabao Cup Final.

NORWICH V LEICESTER
I like Leicester to bounce back from their recent poor run and put some goals past a leaky Norwich defence. It looks like Norwich have almost accepted that they are going down and plan to at least stick to their philosophy of playing entertaining footy in the process. Fair play to them for that but this will give Leicester the chance to have a real go at them. I think Brendan Rodgers will instruct his players to be aggressive and attacking as Norwich won’t sit back at home.
Norwich 1, Leicester 3

BRIGHTON V PALACE
This one has a draw written all over it. Brighton have been struggling to finish games off while Palace are a very defensively minded team and don’t give anything away. If Brighton can contain Wilfried Zaha then they have most of the battle won. Their problem is scoring at the other end. Brighton will be more attacking as they really need the three points to ease their relegation fears. Palace will be happy with a point and I think they will get it.
Brighton 1, Palace 1

BOURNEMOUTH V CHELSEA
Bournemouth were completely and utterly robbed by VAR last week in what has to go down as one of the most disgraceful performances by a VAR official in history. Firstly, they had a perfectly legit goal disallowed for a handball when the ball came off the players shoulder. Burnley scored at the other end in the ensuing play and to make matters worse were then awarded a penalty for another “handball” that clearly came off a shoulder. The sickening thing is that its the same VAR ref (Chris Kavanaugh) who made two howlers in the Chelsea v Man U game the week before and yet there will be no sanction against him. Chelsea got out of a rut with a win over Spurs last weekend. Bournemouth will be wondering what they have to do to get a win.
Bournemouth 1, Chelsea 2

NEWCASTLE V BURNLEY
Newcastle like to keep things nice and tight at home. Burnley have been on a good run of late and confidence will be up. They have ridden their luck and dug themselves out of a relegation scrap. Newcastle are probably close to being safe so a draw would be enough for them. Based on form alone, a draw looks like the most likely result.
Newcastle 1, Burnley 1

WEST HAM V SOUTHAMPTON
This one could really go either way. West Ham put up a massive fight against Liverpool at Anfield last weekend and almost pulled off an improbable win. They also like playing against Southampton having won their last 4 EPL games against the Saints. Sounds easy enough but the problem is that West Ham are the second worst team at home in the league and playing against the one of the top 5 away teams in Southampton (won 4 of last 5 away game with the lone defeat being at Anfield). This one is a toss of the coin. There should be plenty of goals though.
West Ham 3, Southampton 2

WATFORD V LIVERPOOL
Since Liverpool have a near perfect record in the Premier League this season and have won 18 matches in a row, it is almost automatic to pick them as winners against whomever they play. Watford shouldn’t pose too much of a problem for them.
Watford 0, Liverpool 2

EVERTON V MAN UNITED
Another very tricky one that could go either way. The case for Everton – strong at home and much improved under Carlos Ancelotti. Man United tend to be a bit soft on the road too. The case for Man United – they like playing the bigger clubs and tend to raise their game for the big ones. Bruno Fernandes has breathed new life into their previously stale midfield. They are also on a bit of a run of form. It all depends on which Man United shows up on the day. I will hedge myself with a draw here.
Everton 1, Man United 1

SPURS V WOLVES
Spurs are showing signs of unravelling again. Yes, they have a serious injury crisis but Jose Mourinho is making it worse by moaning about it constantly. This doesn’t show much confidence in the players that he has right now. Wolves are a very machine-like team. Their line-up doesn’t differ much and they are also in the hunt for a Champions League spot. I can’t see Spurs scoring while Wolves will create chances.
Spurs 0, Wolves 2

THE VALUE BETS:

Leicester over Norwich at 1.75 is the bet you can improve this to 2.35 if you add goals over 2.5 but that is a bit risky.
Wolves to win over Spurs to nil at 4.75 … is worth the risk vs reward.
Chelsea over Bournemouth at 1.72 …
Liverpool to win to nil over Watford at 2.40 …  you have to take that all day.

THE HOME RUN:

Those four bets combined would pay R340.30 on a R10 bet.

Written by Ian Marshall

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